Grim Prospects for Economy


The PAD Disaster and the global economic recession are going to strike hard on the Thai economy this year. Various new estimates of the extent to which exports will be reduced are making the news again, for example here and here. Of course, no one really knows how bad the situation will be because nobody knows whether the measures put into place by the American, British and other western governments will have the desired results – sensible people have realized the need for Keynesian style economics and the requisite stimulus measures have been put into place (it is possible to differ about the best ways of doing this) – yet there is evidence that banks are continuing to cause problems by not addressing the need to pass on the money they have been given by government to ease their liquidity crisis – government really needs to force the market to conduct itself as required.

Meanwhile, the Santika Pub fire disaster is not likely to help the already badly affected tourism industry, which is still suffering from the PAD seizure of the two international airports. Expect continued political protests to exacerbate the problems of perception among potential visitors.