Where is Thailand’s economy headed?

Thailand is booming economically, and Carl Berrisford (analyst for UBS CIO Wealth Management Research) thinks this is a sustainable boom (not a boom & bust).

The main reasons for his positive prediction for Thailand’s economy:

  • increased political stability
  • a major government infrastructure spending program
    • total around ~1.9 trillion baht,¬†with the peak of the spending outlays occurring in 2016-17
    • mainly BKK mass transit system
    • 4 new high-speed rail routes
    • extending capacity of Suvarnabhumi airport
    • road & rail projects
    • – all this has led to housing boom in Bangkok
  • record levels of inbound tourism
    • mainly Chinese tourists and Asean nationalities (visa-free entry to Thailand)
  • opening of Myanmar 2012 also increases Bangkok’s importance as regional flight hub
  • Japan yen is cheap now, so Japan wants to extend its supply chain and raise export capacity in Asean markets
    • lots of Japanese investments into carmaking and electronics sectors
  • Thailand public debt-to-GDP ratio is 44%
  • household income is rising (partly due to minimum wage rises)

Read the full article here for more details.

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